Monday, November 7, 2011

Better an Iranian A-Bomb in the Basement than missiles on the roofs of Tel Aviv

Hebrew original 5. Nov 2011:

The current media storm cannot conceal the “secret” that former Mossad chief Meir Dagan has disclosed: Israel has no military realistic military option that would not be more dangerous than the very theoretical potential threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb. That is: an Iranian “conventional” counter-strike after an Israeli attack would be much more dangerous than an Iranian nuclear bomb in the basement.
And therefore:
A nuclear bomb in an Iranian basement is preferable to missiles on the roofs of Tel Aviv!
Already today there is a so called Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) situation that both Iran and Israel are respecting. Basically an Iranian nuclear bomb will not change this state of affairs! Even if Iran has a nuclear bomb, Israel can better live with such a bomb than with a suicidal attack on Iran.
In other words, instead of lying to and manipulating the Israeli public and the entire world, it would be better if the government of Israel admitted the truth and sought concrete peaceful solutions to the ongoing crisis with Iran. The harsh mutual recriminations, especially those from Israel’s side with American support, are fraught with danger; and even though they may be intended to advance other interests (for example, to distract attention from the conflict with the Palestinians), the possibility that some crazy duty officer on one side or the other might push the wrong button cannot be discounted.

Teapacks - Push The Button
"The world is full of terror  
If someone makes an error  
He's gonna blow us up  
To biddy biddy kingdom come      
There are some crazy rulers  
They hide and try to fool us  
With demonic, technologic  
Willingness to harm."
(The crazy rulers, of course, are not only in Teheran.... – S.E.)
There is a need , therefore, in the short term to create a mechanisms such as existed during the Cold War, to reduce the danger, if only a little bit, and avoid pouring oil on the fire.
This may sound naïve, but the truth is that Israel too could enact some confidence-building measures to contribute to a relaxation of the tensions. For example, Israel could at long last return to Iran the money it has been owed since the time of the Shah. This stinginess is exacting a price, and it is not as if Israel has not been conducting covert commercial relations with Iran for many years now anyway. It is clear, for example, that Israel is importing oil from Iran, and there are several indications that it is that is precisely what some Ofer Brothers tankers were doing in Iranian ports – to wit: they have been bringing oil to Israel through Mediterranean ports (nothing to do with secret agents or other fairy-tales). The Iranians knew very well that the ships were Israeli-owned, because their authorities checked the tankers’ documents during at least some of their visits to Iranian ports (that is supported by at least one database). The viewers of the popular TV reality show “Wealthy Women” (Hameusharot) learned that even expensive marble is being imported from Iran.
 During the 1990s there were even those like Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon, who was not exactly a dove, who were in favour of paying the debt and reducing tensions with Iran. According to the Haaretz newspaper’s military expert Amir Oren, who usually knows a lot more than he writes, the Israeli Finance Ministry and the US Administration opposed any compromise with the Iranians; so the various Ahmadinejads can wreak havoc and serve the interests they serve.

Translated from Hebrew by George Malent

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